BMC：经济型酒店未来三年平均增长率为30%

　　【迈点网】Brean Murray, Carret & Co.(BMC，美国飞利凯睿证券有限公司)发布了有关中国经济型酒店业的研究报告。该公司高级分析师 Fawne Jiang 在这份报告中看好中国的经济型酒店业，认为该行业已经开始为期多年的扩张，而且这种扩张得到了强大基础的支持。这包括可持续的经济增长、经济型酒店品牌渗透度低以及休闲和商务旅行的需求不断上升。BMC 挑选的企业包括汉庭连锁酒店 (China Lodging Group) (HTHT)、七天连锁酒店 (7 Days Group Holdings)(SVN) 以及如家酒店集团 (Home Inns and Hotels Management)(HMIN)，全部给予买入评级。

　　Fawne Jiang 表示：“相比他们的美国住宿业同行，我们相信这些顶级中国经济型酒店供应商的发展潜力更大，而且估值也很吸引人。我们向那些想参与中国坚实经济增长和消费开支上升的人建议把资金分配给这个行业里的业绩领先者。”

　　根据最新的行业预测，这个细分行业的目标是未来三年的年平均增长率达到30%。考虑到该行业循环发展的性质，Brean Murray, Carret 预计该细分行业将随着经济周期上升一起增长，而且会在2010年及以后年份里迅速扩张。

　　Brean Murray, Carret 资本市场主管 David A. Dunn 说：“中国经济型酒店业正在蓬勃发展。汉庭连锁酒店(2010年3月)和七天连锁酒店(2009年11月)近期的 IPO 触发了投资者对该细分行业的巨大兴趣。我们要在该领域的研究里占据前沿地位，并把这些依然相对较新的高品质中国 ADR(美国存托凭证)介绍给更多的投资者。”

　　虽然在相同行业里竞争，但是这三家公司处于不同的发展阶段，而且管理层重心和发展战略也截然不同。关键摘要包括：

　　- 如家酒店集团(买入)：拥有规模经济的公认行业领导者。该公司已经拥有细分行业里最大的网络，截至2010年第一季度，该公司经营的酒店达到638家，占市场总份额的17%，而且依靠巨大的利润领先于其他运营商。如家酒店集团凭借已有的品牌权益和全国渗透度(121个城市)享有先发优势

　　- 汉庭连锁酒店(买入)：优质品牌保证更高的每间客房收入 (RevPAR)。该公司通过选择一流店面位置和建立优质品牌 ——这可以让公司获得更高的 RevPAR ——实施聚焦型发展战略，而且公司有着清晰的利基定位，能抓住中等水平商务旅行者不断增长的需求。汉庭连锁酒店拥有相对年轻的酒店系列和积极的拓展计划，Brean Murray, Carret 相信该公司正处于未来几年里的快速发展通道之中。

　　- 七天连锁酒店(买入)：可以升级的业务平台能够提供巨大的经营杠杆。就拥有的酒店数而言，七天连锁酒店在业内排名第二，该公司的核心竞争能力在于其迅速的网络拓展和到位的有效成本控制。它对电子商务平台的坚定承诺和大量的会员使其与众不同；Brean Murray, Carret 相信七天连锁酒店可以升级的业务平台能长期提供巨大的经营杠杆。[page]

　　Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Initiates Coverage of the China Economy Hotel Industry

　　Brean Murray, Carret & Co. (BMC) yesterday launched research coverage of the China Economy Hotel Industry. In the report, Senior Analyst Fawne Jiang notes that the company has a favorable view on the industry and believes that it is at the onset of a multi-year expansion, bolstered by strong fundamentals. These include sustainable economic growth, low penetration of branded economy hotels and increasing demand from both leisure and business travel. BMC picks in the space include China Lodging Group (HTHT) and 7 Days Group Holdings (SVN) and assume coverage of Home Inns and Hotels Management (HMIN), all with Buy ratings.

　　"Compared with their U.S. lodging peers, we believe the top China economy hotel suppliers offer significantly higher growth potential with attractive valuations. We recommend allocating resources to the industry"s top performers to those who want to participate in China"s solid economic growth and increasing consumer spending," stated Fawne Jiang.

　　According to the latest industry guidance, the sector is targeted to deliver average annual growth of ~30% over the next three years. Given the cyclical nature of the industry, the expectation is that the sector will grow in tandem with the upward economic cycle and expand at a rapid pace in 2010 and beyond.

　　"The China economy hotel industry is booming. The recent IPOs of China Lodging Group (March 2010) and 7 Days Group (November 2009) have sparked significant investor interest in the sector. We wanted to be at the forefront of research in this space and introduce these high quality, yet relatively new China ADRs to more investors," stated David A. Dunn, Head of Capital Markets.

　　While competing in the same industry, the three companies are at different stages of growth, with distinct management focuses and growth strategies. Key highlights include:

　　Home Inns (Buy): Proven industry leader with economies of scales. Home Inns has the largest network in the sector, with 638 hotels in operation as of 1Q10, accounting for ~17% of the total market share and leading other operators by a significant margin. Home Inns enjoys first-mover advantages with its established brand equity and nationwide penetration (121 cities).

　　China Lodging Group (Buy): Premium brand warrants higher RevPAR. With a clear niche positioning to capture the growing demand of the mid-level business travelers, China Lodging has a focused growth strategy through selecting prime store locations and building its premium brand, which has enabled the company to command higher RevPAR. With a relatively young fleet of hotels and an aggressive expansion plan, Brean Murray, Carret believes the company is on a fast growth track over the next few years.

　　7 Days Group (Buy): Scalable business platform offers substantial operating leverage. Ranked #2 in the economy hotel industry by number of hotels, 7 Days" core competence lies in its fast network expansion with effective cost control in place. Its strong commitment to an e-commerce platform and its large membership has set the company apart; Brean Murray, Carret believes its scalable business platform offers substantial operating leverage in the long term.

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